Assessment of agricultural drought risk leveraging earth observation data and Google Earth Engine for Odisha

Agricultural droughts significantly impact food security, livelihoods, and the economy at large, particularly in regions predominant with climate-sensitive agricultural systems. India’s increasing climate variability and monsoon uncertainties, has intensified the frequency and severity of droughts, necessitating robust and scalable assessment frameworks. The study aims to understand the agricultural drought risk of Odisha using Earth Observation (EO) data and Google Earth Engine (GEE). EO-based indicators such as rainfall, temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), vapour pressure deficit (VPD), and soil moisture (SM) obtained from TerraClimate were used to assess the drought hazard using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). LULC data from ESA WorldCover were used to delineate crop extent for understanding drought exposure. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), derived from MODIS-NDVI, mapped agricultural drought vulnerability. These parameters were integrated into the risk equation to quantify agricultural drought risk across Odisha. The analysis reveals that Subarnapur and Baudh exhibit the highest area of high agricultural drought-risk, accounting for nearly 72% of its total agricultural area. These districts, located in western Odisha, are historically drought-prone attributed to erratic monsoon rainfall, prolonged dry spells, high agricultural dependence on rainfall, and limited irrigation infrastructure. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of EO and GEE based approaches in generating spatially explicit agricultural drought risk at district-level, offering robust, data-driven insights to support targeted and localised mitigation strategies. This study also aligns with global priorities of the Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and Sustainable Development Goals, along with national strategies such as the PM 10-point agenda and Viksit Bharat 2047 aimed at climate-resilient agricultural planning.