Key result
A developed nomogram incorporating age, histology subtype, primary site, tumor size, grade, and depth demonstrated high accuracy in predicting distant metastasis at presentation, achieving a C-index of 0.801 in the validation set.
Why the study?
Soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities is rare, with metastases developing in 40%-50% of patients and leading to high mortality, motivating the identification of risk factors and development of a predictive nomogram.
Observational (n=3,884)
Effect estimate: C-index 0.801
A novel nomogram incorporating age, histology, primary site, tumor size, grade, and depth accurately predicts the risk of distant metastasis at presentation in patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities or trunk.
Nomogram may aid metastasis risk stratification in extremity STS; leaves open need for prospective validation before clinical adoption.
Soft tissue sarcoma (STS) of the extremities are a rare tumor. Metastases develop in about 40%-50% of patients, most of whom die from their disease. We sought to identify potential risk factors associated with metastatic diseases upon presentation for patients with STS and established a reliable nomogram model to predict distant metastasis of STS at presentation. The current study retrospectively analyzed 3884 STS of the extremities or trunk patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. Based on patient registration, all patients were randomly allocated to training sets and validation sets (2:1). Then, univariate and binary logistic regression analysis was used to determine the significantly correlated predictors of metastasis. Finally, the nomogram model was established, using these predictors and validated it. 311 (8.21%) of the cases experienced distant metastatic disease was present at the time of presentation. The nomogram was developed from age, histology subtype, primary site, tumor size, grade and depth. Encouragingly, the nomogram showed favorable calibration with C-index 0.790 in the training set and 0.801 in validation set. The DCA showed that the novel model was clinically useful. This nomogram model had a high precision to predict the metastasis of soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities. We expect this model could be used in different clinical consultation and established risk assessment.
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Li et al. (2020) conducted an observational in Soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities or trunk (n=3,884). Risk factors for metastasis (age, histology, tumor size, site, grade, depth) was evaluated on Distant metastasis at presentation (C-index 0.801). A developed nomogram incorporating age, histology subtype, primary site, tumor size, grade, and depth demonstrated high accuracy in predicting distant metastasis at presentation, achieving a C-index of 0.801 in the validation set.
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