Why the study?
Does the Framingham risk score accurately predict incident MI and CHD death in a low-income Mexican population?
Does the Framingham risk score accurately predict incident MI and CHD death in a low-income Mexican population?
The Framingham risk score significantly overestimates the risk of incident MI and CHD death in low-income Mexican men, indicating a need for population-specific recalibration.
Framingham overestimation warrants caution in low-income Mexican men; leaves open whether local recalibration improves prediction.
OBJECTIVE: To compare the predicted risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and incident myocardial infarction (MI) using Framingham score equations with the observed rate of MI in Mexican subjects. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Longitudinal study that included 1 667 men and women aged 35 to 64 years without MI at baseline. Incident MI was defined by electrocardiogram or death certificate. The predicted risk of fatal MI, non-fatal MI, and both was calculated using Framingham score equations. Predicted to observed risk ratio of MI was estimated. RESULTS: There were 34 incident MI cases and 24 MI deaths (median follow-up 6.2 years). The score equations overestimated the prediction of incident MI and CHD death (ratio 2.27, 95% CI, 1.19-3.34) and incident MI (ratio 2.36, 95% CI, 1.07-3.65) in men. CONCLUSIONS: The Framingham score overestimated incident MI and CHD death risk in men; however, other studies are needed to confirm our results for recalibrating the score for Mexican subjects.
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Jiménez-Corona et al. (2009) studied this question.
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