Key result
Predicted heart age is generally higher than chronological age in low- and middle-income countries, yet more than 50% of individuals with excess predicted heart age are not eligible for preventive treatment.
Why the study?
Few studies have characterized predicted heart age across multiple populations, and none has described whether individuals with excess predicted heart age are eligible for cardiovascular disease preventive treatment.
Cross-Sectional (n=94,655)
Yes
Predicted heart age is generally higher than chronological age in LMICs, but most people with excess predicted heart age would not be eligible for preventive medication under current WHO guidelines.
Background: Predicted heart age (PHA) can simplify communicating the absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Few studies have characterized PHA across multiple populations, and none has described whether people with excess PHA are eligible for preventive treatment for CVD. Methods: Pooled analysis of 41 World Health Organization (WHO) STEPS surveys conducted in 41 countries in six world regions between 2013 and 2019. PHA was calculated as per the non-laboratory Framingham risk score in adults without history of CVD. We described the differences between chronological age and PHA, the distribution of PHA, and the proportion of people with excess PHA that were eligible for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment following the WHO guidelines. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess sociodemographic and health-related variables associated with PHA excess. Findings: 94,655 individuals aged 30-74 years were included. 36% of those aged 30-34 years had a PHA of 30-34 years; 9% of those aged 60-64 years had a PHA of 60-64 years. Countries in Africa had the lowest prevalence of very high PHA (i.e., PHA exceeding chronological age in ≥5 years) and countries in Western Pacific had the highest. ≥50% of the population with PHA excess (i.e., PHA exceeding chronological age in ≥1 year) was not eligible for antihypertensive nor lipid-lowering treatment. Abdominal obesity, high total cholesterol, smoking and having diabetes were associated with higher odds of having PHA excess, whereas higher education and employment were inversely associated with excess PHA. Interpretation: PHA is generally higher than chronological age in LMICs and there are regional disparities. Most people with excess PHA would not be eligible to receive preventive medication. Funding: RMC-L is supported by a Wellcome Trust International Training Fellowship (214185/Z/18/Z).
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Guzman‐Vilca et al. (2022) conducted a cross-sectional in Cardiovascular disease risk (n=94,655). Cardiometabolic risk factors (e.g., smoking, diabetes, abdominal obesity) vs. Normal risk factors was evaluated on Excess predicted heart age (PHA exceeding chronological age) and eligibility for preventive treatment. Predicted heart age is generally higher than chronological age in low- and middle-income countries, yet more than 50% of individuals with excess predicted heart age are not eligible for preventive treatment.
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