Key result
None of the control measures applied in Latvia showed a significant effect on the proportion of hunted or found dead wild boar or on the estimated ASFV genome prevalence.
Why the study?
African Swine Fever continues to spread despite intensive control measures, leaving substantial knowledge gaps regarding disease epidemiology.
Observational (n=12,978)
Implemented control measures for African Swine Fever in Latvian wild boar populations did not significantly alter virus prevalence or hunting proportions, highlighting the difficulty of controlling the disease in the wild.
Highlights the ineffectiveness of current African Swine Fever interventions in wild populations; leaves open the need for.
A wild boar population infected with African Swine Fever (ASF) constitutes a constant threat to commercial pig farms and therefore to the economy of the affected country. Currently, ASF is still spreading in several countries and the implementation of intensive measures such as reducing wild boar population densities seems not to be able to stop the further spread of the disease. In addition, there are still substantial knowledge gaps regarding the epidemiology of the disease. To identify risk factors for a higher probability of a wild boar sample being virological or serological positive, comprehensive statistical analyses were performed based on Latvian surveillance data. Using a multivariable Bayesian regression model, the effects of implemented control measures on the proportion of hunted or found dead wild boar or on the estimated virus prevalence were evaluated. None of the control measures applied in Latvia showed a significant effect on the relevant target figure. Also, the estimated periodic prevalence of wild boar that had tested ASF positive by PCR appeared to remain unaffected over time. Therefore, there is an urgent need to reconsider the implemented control measures. The results of this study and the course of ASF in other affected countries, raise the question, whether an endemic situation of ASF in wild boar is reversible.
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Schulz et al. (2019) conducted an observational in African swine fever in wild boar (n=12,978). African swine fever control measures (e.g., hunting incentives, restrictions on driven hunts) vs. Periods without the specific control measures was evaluated on Proportion of hunted or found dead wild boar and estimated ASFV genome prevalence. None of the control measures applied in Latvia showed a significant effect on the proportion of hunted or found dead wild boar or on the estimated ASFV genome prevalence.
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