Predicting Angiographic Outcome in Contemporary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Lesion‐Specific Logistic Model

BACKGROUND: Previous angiographic lesion classification systems were derived from analysis of outcomes and lesion complexity in the early stent era. Advances in equipment design and techniques have altered the association between lesion and target vessel characteristics and procedural outcome in modern percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We evaluated the precise relationship between lesion characteristics and technical outcome on a lesion by lesion basis in a large dataset. We developed a multivariate model to predict technical failure in PCI. METHODS: Analysis of prospectively collected data on 10,800 lesions in 6,719 consecutive PCI cases between January 2000 and December 2004. Multivariate logistic regression was undertaken to identify predictors of angiographic outcome at each treated lesion (success/failure). Statistical model validation was carried out using data from a further 3,340 treated lesions in 1,940 consecutive cases. RESULTS: Independent variables associated with an increased risk of technical failure included total occlusion, severe calcification, proximal vessel tortuosity >90 degrees, lesion in a degenerate vein graft, and lesion angulation > or =90 degrees. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve for the predicted probability of technical failure was 0.85. Failure occurred in 2.2% of treated lesions in the validation set (ROC curve 0.82, model predicted 2.5%). CONCLUSIONS: We have re-evaluated the association between lesion characteristics and technical outcome in modern PCI. We have thereby developed a contemporary prediction model for angiographic outcome at each treated lesion.