Transportation in urban land change models: a systematic review and future directions

Urban land change and transportation infrastructure development often interact and collectively lead to significant socioeconomic and biophysical impacts. Here, we performed a systematic review to identify how urban land change modeling studies account for transportation infrastructure. We found that less than one-fifth of urban land modeling studies explicitly incorporated a transportation component. Of these, most incorporated transportation based on relatively simple distance-based variables. Despite the recognized influence of transportation on urban growth, only a few studies attempted to capture the dynamic interaction between the two. We present a conceptual modeling framework and argue for a renewed focus on capturing the dynamic interaction between urban land change and transportation development in modeling studies. Such focus is essential to develop a well-informed understanding of the implications for urban forms and landscapes of the wide-ranging changes in transportation systems that accompany rapid urbanization around the world.