Evaluating the impact of a newly added commuter rail system on bus ridership: a grouped ordered logit model approach

The study develops a comprehensive and statistically valid framework to study the impact of new public transportation infrastructure (SunRail commuter train) on existing public transit infrastructure (Lynx bus) in the Orlando metropolitan region. The data for the study is drawn from bus ridership information for six 4-month time periods - 3 prior and 3 after SunRail began operations - allowing us to study time varying effects of SunRail on bus ridership. The current research formulates and estimates an innovative grouped ordered response structure for the ridership analysis. To measure the impact of commuter rail on stop level bus ridership (defined as boarding and alighting), the model system controls for a host of independent variables including stop level attributes, transportation infrastructure, transit infrastructure, land use, built environment, demographic and socioeconomic variables. The proposed model also accommodates for common unobserved factors affecting ridership as well as repeated ridership measures for each stop.