European Community Enlargement and World Trade in Fruits and Vegetables

World trade models for the product classes fresh fruits, dried fruits, processed fruits, fresh vegetables, and processed vegetables are estimated and used to project the impact on export prices and trade patterns likely to arise after the European Economic Community enlargement with Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The results indicate that current world trends in import demands and export supplies if continued, and in the absence of enlargement, will cause marked declines of export prices for four of the above product categories (except dried fruits). The enlargement will not significantly modify these price projections, but it will divert a significant part of European Community imports of these products to the three new member countries.