The utility of 2009 H1N1 pandemic data in understanding the transmission potential and estimating the burden of COVID-19 in South Africa to guide mitigation strategies

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) rapidly became a health emergency of international concern requiring urgent . It emerged late in 2019 in China as a respiratory pathogen, the first epicentres observed in Iran, Spain and northern Italy. the time of writing there were about 4 525 497 cases and 307 395 worldwide, of which 1 409 452 cases and 85 860 deaths were the USA, which is the most affected country in absolute terms.[1] COVID-19 pandemic has been marked by extreme heterogeneity both geography and population across the world. Consequently, local data aligned to the unique South African (SA) context critical. Moreover, comprehensive mathematical models should the full complexity of transmission dynamics observed with -19 in the context of rapidly changing individual, social and determinants in SA