Trajectories and mitigation potentials of agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in China's regional trade

Projections of the agricultural non-CO 2 greenhouse gas (NCGHG) transfers under diverse regional development pathways offers vital insights for achieving both climate goals and responsible consumption. We calculated the agricultural NCGHG emissions in 30 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2020, and examines the spatio-temporal dynamics of interregional emission transfers using an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model. Combining this model with the STIRPAT model, we simulated future embodied NCGHG emissions within regional trade under multiple scenarios. The results revealed an upward trend in net interregional transfers of NCGHG emissions from 87.4 Mt. CO 2 eq in 2007 to 194.7 Mt. CO 2 eq in 2020. These flows were mainly aggregated in East and South China. East China remained the dominant inflow region, reaching 125.13 Mt. CO 2 eq in 2020, while Northwest and Northeast China became the largest net outflow regions. Scenario simulations show that future consumption-based agricultural NCGHG emissions were highest under an extensive development scenario and lowest under green development, with the mitigation gap between them reaching 143.1 Mt. CO 2 eq by 2050 and East China evidencing the largest reduction potential. Central, and Southwest China also faced heightened emission pressures, highlighting China's regional disparities in future mitigation potential. Crucially, the results revealed an interregional carbon leakage mechanism: net import regions satisfy their agricultural demands through trade, thereby externalizing the environmental costs of NCGHG emissions to net export regions Our findings provides essential scientific evidence to supporting the need for region-specific mitigation strategies for facilitating China's realization of its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.