Determinants of local communities’ perceptions of policy effectiveness in balancing conservation and livelihood needs in Loka Abaya National Park, southern Ethiopia

National parks in Ethiopia face the dual challenge of conserving biodiversity, while sustaining local livelihoods. However, limited empirical evidence exists on how socio-economic, cultural and institutional factors collectively shape community perceptions of conservation policy effectiveness. This study investigates these determinants in Loka Abaya National Park, Sidama Region, Ethiopia, using an integrated framework grounded in Social exchange theory (SET) and the institutional analysis and development (IAD) framework. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining household surveys (n = 128) with key informant interviews and focus group discussions. Determinants of policy perception were analysed using an ordered logistic regression model. Results reveal that favourable perceptions are driven by higher income, larger farmland size, greater distance from the park, education and involvement in decision-making. Notably, two counter-intuitive findings emerged: prior conflict with park authorities positively predicted favourable perceptions—likely reflecting the visibility of state enforcement—while secure land tenure predicted unfavourable views, possibly due to perceived restrictions on agricultural expansion. Conversely, larger household sizes and negative economic interactions with the Park (driven by widespread resource dependence) significantly predicted unfavourable perceptions. The findings underscore that, without viable alternative livelihoods, restrictive conservation policies exacerbate local vulnerabilities. To reconcile biodiversity goals with human well-being, policy-makers must transition from exclusionary governance to participatory, rights-based co-management. Prioritising equitable benefit-sharing, tenure-sensitive boundary delineation and conservation education are essential to enhancing policy legitimacy and long-term biodiversity outcomes in Ethiopia’s protected areas.