Key result
Implementation of a statewide movement ban of 3 or more days consistently reduced the size and duration of simulated foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks originating from a dairy herd.
Implementation of a statewide movement ban of 3 or more days can consistently reduce the size and duration of a simulated foot-and-mouth disease outbreak originating from a dairy herd in California.
Supports modeling of movement bans for FMD control; leaves open real-world validation before policy adoption.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) if introduced from wild pigs in California and to evaluate efficacies of various control strategies. SAMPLE POPULATION: Data for California livestock and from hunter surveys on wild pigs in California. PROCEDURES: A spatial, stochastic simulation model was used to simulate FMD epidemics that might occur if a dairy or beef herd were infected from contact with a wild pig. Index herd location and type were examined, in addition to different statewide movement ban (SWMB) durations, to determine their effect on extent of the epidemic. RESULTS: Duration, number of infected premises, size of simulated outbreak, number of culled animals, and spatial distribution of infected herds resulting from the simulated outbreaks varied considerably among geographic regions, depending on index case type and location. Outbreaks beginning in the southern region of California were consistently longest, whereas those beginning in the northern region were shortest. The largest outbreaks resulted from index cases located in the southern and valley regions, whereas outbreaks were smallest when originating in the Sonoma or northern regions. For all regions, when the index herd was a dairy herd, size and duration of the outbreak were consistently reduced with implementation of an SWMB >or= 3 days. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Introduction of FMDV from wild pigs into a dairy or beef herd could result in a large and rapidly spreading outbreak, potentially affecting large numbers of herds. Size and duration of the outbreak might be reduced with an SWMB; however, the impact is highly dependent on the index herd type and location.
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Pineda‐Krch et al. (2010) studied Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Statewide movement ban (SWMB) ≥ 3 days vs. No SWMB or different durations was evaluated on Extent of the epidemic (duration, number of infected premises, size of outbreak, number of culled animals). Implementation of a statewide movement ban of 3 or more days consistently reduced the size and duration of simulated foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks originating from a dairy herd.
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