Key result
A stochastic model of foot and mouth disease in feral pigs predicted inevitable extinction of the disease, with a mean persistence time of 1037 to 3338 days depending on transmission coefficient variability.
Population
Feral pigs (Sus scrofa) in the Australian semi-arid rangelands
Comparison
Stochastic model of feral pig population… vs Fully deterministic model of FMD in feral pigs
Design
Other
Authors
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May simplify FMD control in feral pigs; leaves open empirical validation of stochastic extinction predictions.
Stochastic modeling of FMD in feral pigs suggests the disease will inevitably go extinct and may be easier to control than deterministic models predict.
Nick Dexter (2003) studied Foot and mouth disease in feral pigs. Stochastic model of FMD transmission vs. Deterministic model of FMD was evaluated on Persistence time of the epizootic and impact on population density. A stochastic model of foot and mouth disease in feral pigs predicted inevitable extinction of the disease, with a mean persistence time of 1037 to 3338 days depending on transmission coefficient variability.
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