Glacier response to climate change in the Sind basin of Kashmir Himalaya: an integrated multi-parameter assessment

Glaciers in the Kashmir Himalayas are rapidly and unevenly changing due to stronger climate forcing with profound consequences for water security and emerging cryospheric hazards. Our study provides a comprehensive geospatial assessment of glacier evolution in Sind basin from 2000 to 2024, integrating multitemporal satellite–derived digital elevation models, ice-thickness inversion and snout retreat mapping. All the glaciers analysed in the basin exhibit persistent negative geodetic mass balance from 2000 to 2022, averaging −0.80 ± 0.32 m w.e. a−1 for 2000–2010 and −0.62 ± 0.18 m w.e. a−1 for 2000–2022. The mean glacier thickness varies between 16.43 ± 2.93 m and 57.43 ± 17.91 m among individual glaciers. Collectively, the 18 glaciers contain an estimated total ice volume of 1.275 ± 0.39 km3, corresponding to an ice mass of approximately 1.147 ± 0.350 Gt. Glaciers like Kolohai (G7: 57.43 ± 17.91 m) and Nehnar (G8: 46.95 ± 18.62 m) retain the highest ice volumes (0.480 ± 0.149 Gt and 0.063 ± 0.025 Gt, respectively). Thirteen out of 18 analysed glaciers show topographic conditions favourable for future proglacial lake development with area ranging from ~0.2223 km2 (Nehnar) to ~0.0567 km2 (Kolohai). Climate factors like a significant warming trend (+0.06°C yr−1) and elevated aerosol loading observed during 2017–2024 make the ablation worse. To better predict meltwater, continued monitoring of glacier geometry, thickness, and emerging proglacial lakes is important for improving cryospheric hazard assessment and water-resource planning in this seismically active part of the western Himalaya.