Research funding and academic careers: stage-contingent effects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China

Public research funding is a central policy instrument shaping academic performance, evaluation, and career progression, yet evidence on how it affects careers across career stages remains limited, particularly in higher education systems shaped by policy priorities. Using longitudinal grant-level data from a Chinese “Double First-Class” university (2005–2019), this study examines stage-contingent effects of National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) funding. Career stages are operationalized via policy-relevant age thresholds at grant acquisition: early, developmental, and mature career. Instrumental-variable estimates show that funding effects vary across the functional, mobility, and inclusion dimensions of academic careers. In the early career stage, funding primarily builds capacity and accelerates entry into the academic system. In the developmental stage, it increasingly reallocates resources and structures differentiation among academics. In the mature stage, its role increasingly shifts from productivity gains toward symbolic recognition. By identifying these heterogeneous effects, the study shows that public research funding functions as a career-stage-contingent governance instrument. The findings carry implications for designing stage-sensitive funding policies in research-intensive universities where grant success, evaluation, and career advancement are tightly coupled.