Key result
The PROGRES-CKD algorithm accurately predicted end-stage kidney disease onset at 6 months (AUC 0.90; 95% CI 0.88-0.91) and was non-inferior to KFRE at 24 months while handling incomplete data.
Why the study?
Current equation-based risk stratification algorithms for kidney failure may have limited real-world applicability because missing data often impedes computation in electronic health records.
Does the PROGRES-CKD algorithm accurately predict end-stage kidney disease onset within 6 and 24 months in adult patients with stage 3-to-5 CKD compared to the Kidney Failure Risk Equation?
Population
Adult stage 3-to-5 CKD patients across training (n=17,775) and two validation cohorts (n=6760 and n=4058)
Comparison
PROGRES-CKD algorithm vs Kidney Failure Risk Equation
Design
Model development and external cohort validation study
Follow-up
6 and 24 months
Authors
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May aid ESKD prediction in CKD with incomplete data; extends KFRE comparability but leaves prospective validation open.
Cohort (n=28,593)
Yes
Does the PROGRES-CKD algorithm accurately predict end-stage kidney disease onset within 6 and 24 months in adult patients with stage 3-to-5 CKD compared to the Kidney Failure Risk Equation?
Effect estimate: AUC 0.90 (95% CI 0.88-0.91)
PROGRES-CKD accurately predicts kidney failure onset in CKD patients and, unlike equation-based scores, can be computed for patients with incomplete data.
Bellocchio et al. (2021) conducted a cohort in Chronic Kidney Disease (n=28,593). PROGRES-CKD algorithm vs. Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) was evaluated on End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) onset within 6 and 24 months (AUC 0.90, 95% CI 0.88-0.91). The PROGRES-CKD algorithm accurately predicted end-stage kidney disease onset at 6 months (AUC 0.90; 95% CI 0.88-0.91) and was non-inferior to KFRE at 24 months while handling incomplete data.
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