Trends in cohort fertility among Chinese women

BACKGROUNDChina's continuous decline in births has attracted scholarly and policy attention.However, total fertility rates are affected by tempo effects and may not accurately reflect the underlying fertility level. OBJECTIVEWe examine cohort trends in childlessness and the number of children ever born (CEB) among Chinese women, focusing on fertility postponement, recuperation, and the effects of structural changes. METHODSUsing nationally representative data, we calculate age-specific childlessness proportions and the number of CEB by cohort.We analyze fertility postponement and recuperation, and employ decomposition techniques to assess how age-parity-specific progression ratios, urban-rural composition, and educational structure contribute to cohort fertility differences. RESULTSChildlessness has increased across cohorts, while CEB has declined.The rise in childlessness is stronger among urban and more educated women, whereas the decline in CEB is greatest among rural and less educated women.Fertility postponement has intensified, while recuperation has weakened.Decomposition shows that increased childlessness is primarily driven by reduced first-birth progression at younger reproductive ages, while the decline in CEB is largely attributed to shifts in women's urban-rural and educational composition.