Optimization of County-Level Industrial Development Pathways in China’s Qinghai Lake Ecological Functional Zone from the Perspective of Ecological Support Capacity–Ecological Pressure Coupling

This study quantitatively analyzed the dynamic changes in the evaluation scores of ecological carrying capacity (ECCit) and per capita ecological footprint (ef) across six counties in the Qinghai Lake Ecological Functional Zone from 2000 to 2024. A coupling coordination prediction model and cluster analysis were employed to classify the six counties within the Qinghai Lake Ecological Functional Zone and to identify appropriate industrial development pathways. In addition, a system dynamics approach was used to verify the rationality of the county clustering and industrial pathway selection and to predict the dynamic changes in ecological carrying capacity (ECCit), per capita ecological footprint (ef), and their coupling coordination degree (CCDM) for each county through 2035. The results indicate that: (1) Significant differences existed in the ecological carrying capacity evaluation scores (ECCit) among the counties in the Qinghai Lake Ecological Functional Zone. The average score was the highest in Huangyuan County (56.81), the next was in Gonghe County (51.73), and the lowest was in Wulan County (34.76) from 2000 to 2024. (2) There are significant differences in the per capita ecological footprint (ef) within the Qinghai Lake Ecological Functional Zone. From 2000 to 2024, the lowest average value was in Gonghe County (0.53), and the highest was in Huangyuan County (1.55), which indicates a clear mismatch between ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint. (3) The coupling coordination between ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint remained relatively low across all six counties during 2000–2024. Among them, the D value of Haiyan County was the lowest (0.64), while that of Gonghe County was the highest (0.86). (4) The six counties were divided into Key conservation zones (Gangcha County, Gonghe County, Tianjun County, Wulan County), a General conservation-oriented development zone (Haiyan County), and a Transfer-development zone (Huangyuan County). This study provides policy suggestions and practical guidance for the sustainable development of industrial zoning in the Qinghai Lake Ecological Functional Zone: Key conservation zones should strengthen the matching of ecological investment and industrial structure, the General conservation-oriented development zone urgently needs to establish a fiscal mechanism that uses tourism revenue to support ecology, and the Transfer-development zone must seek a dynamic balance between industrial increment and emission reduction technologies.