Historical demographic analysis reveals rising fertility driven by nuptiality shifts in interwar Greece, highlighting sharp regional disparities masked by national averages.
The 1920s are often described by demographers as a period of “population depression” across Europe. By the end of the decade, many Western and Northern European countries were approaching or had already fallen below replacement level fertility for the first time in recorded history. Greece provides a distinct contrast to the Western European trend, recording volatile but generally ascending fertility rates during the 1920s. This rise in fertility is often attributed to the arrival of over 1.2 million Greek refugees from Asia Minor, which presumably exhibited more prolific reproductive behavior than the native population. This paper examines the reproductive behavior of the Greek population by geographical department and refugee status (refugees and natives), employing established methods of historical demography to overcome interwar data limitations. The findings reveal that the observed rise in fertility was driven both by an increase in marital fecundity and by a shift in nuptiality. The shift in marriage patterns bolstered the Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), while the Total Marital Fertility Rates (TMFRs) followed a proportionally lower increase. Moreover, the regional analysis reveals a finding previously unaddressed in the relevant literature: in the early 1920s, fertility in certain Greek regions had already dropped below replacement level, even though the national average remained above it. These spatial disparities underscore that interwar Greece was a complex demographic mosaic of cultural and social identities, particularly across territories recently annexed into the modern Greek state.
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Vasilis S. Gavalas (2026) studied this question.
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