Mechanisms of Government Intervention in Promoting Structural Transformation in Agricultural Production Through the Adoption of Embodied Intelligent Agricultural Machinery

The rapid expansion of embodied intelligent agricultural machinery has not been accompanied by a commensurate increase in market adoption, highlighting a growing disconnect between technological supply and downstream demand. This study develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to examine how government fiscal support and labor-market frictions shape the adoption of embodied intelligent agricultural machinery and structural transformation in agricultural production. Structural parameters are estimated using agricultural machinery purchase data and listed-company recruitment records for 2021–2025, and the estimated parameters are incorporated into dynamic simulations. The results show that the scale and composition of fiscal support operate through distinct mechanisms. An expansion in the scale of fiscal support primarily raises final agricultural output by promoting the accumulation of R&D outcomes and technological knowledge and thereby improving productivity, while exerting only a limited direct effect on the demand structure for embodied intelligent machinery. Changes in the composition of fiscal support, by contrast, affect sectoral output allocation through shifts in government demand. Lower labor-market frictions increase the nominal demand share of embodied intelligent agricultural machinery and induce a reallocation of capital, labor, and output toward the embodied intelligent sector, with relatively limited effects on aggregate agricultural output. Reallocating fiscal resources from current government purchases toward government savings generates an intertemporal trade-off between current support and long-run productivity accumulation. The labor-market-friction mechanism remains robust across alternative elasticities of substitution. Overall, the findings indicate that sustained technology adoption depends on the effective transmission of technological supply into market demand through coordinated fiscal support and improved labor-market allocation.