Exploring green hydrogen production potential in Western Australia: A decision framework for site suitability and scenario evaluation

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

The share of renewable energy in Australia’s energy mix is expected to grow from 39.4 % in 2023 over the coming years. While this transition aligns with Australia’s sustainable energy goals, it also challenges grid stability. Low-load situations where renewable energy (RE) generation exceeds demand can strain grid infrastructure and frequency regulation, increasing the risk of blackouts. However, they also offer an opportunity to enhance grid resilience and sustainability by utilising surplus energy for green hydrogen production. This study assesses the viability of using surplus RE for hydrogen production in Western Australia by analysing data from 513,870 small-scale solar PV installations. Two scenarios were developed based on household solar energy use: one for households with batteries, resulting in an estimated surplus of 0.68 to 1.99 TWh/year, and another for households without batteries, yielding a surplus of 3.96 TWh/year. By assuming 60 % utilisation of this surplus, we estimate a significant potential for green hydrogen production. To evaluate site suitability, spatial analysis was conducted using ArcGIS Pro and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), considering factors such as solar potential, water accessibility, land use, and socio-environmental constraints. Three production scenarios were examined: decentralised (local community use scale), semi-centralised (commercial use scale), and centralised (industrial use scale) to identify optimal locations for each. The weighted sum overlay method was used, with criteria weights derived from AHP. Our analysis identified 52,094.88 km 2 as highly suitable for decentralised production, 1,841.61 km 2 for semi-centralised, and 1,547.81 km 2 for centralised green hydrogen development. These findings offer foundational insights to support infrastructure planning, policy development, and the strategic establishment of green hydrogen hubs, contributing to the growth of Western Australia’s hydrogen economy.