Crusius on probability and certainty in empirical science: a reply to van den Berg and Demarest

Crusius’ work on physics has recently become the target of well-deserved scholarly attention. In this paper, I aim to challenge a recent interpretation of Crusius’ physics as a merely probable science defended by Hein van den Berg and Boris Demarest. By inquiring into the sense of ‘probable’ in Crusius and systematizing his often-missed distinction between two concepts of probability, this paper argues that Crusius defended a conception of physics as a science that can and, and in fact does, attain full certainty.