Revealing overlooked strategic sectors in Oman: a network centrality approach beyond Leontief multipliers toward vision 2040 goals

Economic diversification remains a major challenge for hydrocarbon-dependent economies, where identifying sectors with systemic influence is essential for achieving sustainable structural transformation. In Oman, existing input–output studies have primarily relied on Leontief multipliers and traditional backward and forward linkage measures, which may overlook sectors that play critical roles within the broader production network. This study advances input–output network analysis by integrating conventional linkage indicators with network centrality approaches to identify structurally influential sectors relevant to Oman Vision 2040 diversification objectives. Using the latest available Oman input–output table, the study applies backward and forward linkage analysis, along with PageRank and random walk centrality algorithms, to evaluate sectoral importance from both multiplier-based and network-based perspectives. The results demonstrate that Oman’s economic structure remains strongly hydrocarbon-centered, with oil and gas-related activities consistently ranking among the most influential sectors. However, network centrality analysis reveals that public administration, defense, and construction possess substantial systemic importance despite relatively limited traditional linkage effects, indicating that their strategic roles are underestimated by conventional multiplier approaches. Conversely, several non-oil sectors, including fisheries and social services, exhibit weak network integration, highlighting structural vulnerabilities in the diversification process. Robustness tests confirm the stability of the identified key sectors under alternative model specifications. The findings suggest that effective diversification strategies should consider production network positions and sectoral centrality, rather than relying exclusively on direct and indirect output multipliers, to strengthen economic resilience and support Oman Vision 2040 goals.