IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.3% (+1.4pp, n=156) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) to the live window would have excluded trades whose phase distance fell outside that band. Of the 10 listed trades, the two REJECTED entries (USDJPY, NZDUSD) and the one open EURUSD are already non-confirmations; the filter would likely have removed the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries at 4051.79 and 4066.35) if their phase distances were outside 5–10°, which is plausible given their clustered timing. That would flip the window from 4W/4L (excluding open/rejected) to 4W/2L, a +2 trade swing — roughly +0.8% PnL on a 1% risk model. However, the EURJPY SHORT win (184.144) and GBPUSD LONG wins might also be filtered out if their phase distances were outside the band, which would negate the benefit. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +1.4p Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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