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November 11, 2025International Journal of Environmental Research and Public HealthOpen Access

Hospital Readmission in Stroke Survivors in Social Vulnerability: Predictive Modeling with Machine Learning from the Perspective of the Chronic Conditions Care Model

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Why the study?

Hospital readmission among stroke survivors is frequent, especially in contexts of social vulnerability, compromising recovery and overburdening health services.

Population

Socially vulnerable stroke survivors

Design

Predictive modeling study using machine learning algorithms

Key result

A decision tree model predicted hospital readmission among socially vulnerable stroke survivors with up to 92.45% accuracy, identifying falls, time since stroke, caregiver presence, and sleep difficulty as key predictors.

Authors

ESErisonval Saraiva da SilvaTMThereza Maria Magalhães MoreiraASAna Célia Caetano de Souza

Discussion

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Member takes

Overview

May inform targeted interventions in vulnerable stroke survivors; leaves open prospective validation before clinical use.

Study Design

Type

Cross-Sectional (n=267)

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

P
Population
267 socially vulnerable stroke survivors (mean age 70.5 years, 47.6% female) were evaluated to identify predictors of hospital readmission within one year.
E
Exposure
Predictive modeling with machine learning (decision tree and logistic regression)
O
Outcome
Hospital readmissionhard clinical

Machine learning models, particularly decision trees, can accurately predict hospital readmission in socially vulnerable stroke survivors, identifying key risk factors such as falls and time since stroke to guide preventive strategies.

Limitations

  • Recall bias from patients or family members regarding disease information.
  • Use of overall hospital readmission rather than stroke-specific readmission as the outcome.
  • Sample restricted to two municipalities with low Human Development Index (HDI), limiting generalizability.

Cite This Study

Silva et al. (2025) conducted a cross-sectional in Stroke survivors in social vulnerability (n=267). Risk factors for hospital readmission (e.g., falls, complications, lack of caregiver) vs. Patients without these risk factors was evaluated on Hospital readmission within one year after stroke. A decision tree model predicted hospital readmission among socially vulnerable stroke survivors with up to 92.45% accuracy, identifying falls, time since stroke, caregiver presence, and sleep difficulty as key predictors.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9d8b1330bdd6b10046e8b7https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph22111705
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