Key result
Decision tree model predicts stroke readmission with ~92% accuracy using falls, sleep, and caregiver presence.
Why the study?
Hospital readmission among stroke survivors is frequent, especially in contexts of social vulnerability, compromising recovery and overburdening health services.
Cross-Sectional (n=267)
Yes
Machine learning models, particularly decision trees, can accurately predict hospital readmission in socially vulnerable stroke survivors, identifying key risk factors such as falls and time since stroke to guide preventive strategies.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
May inform targeted interventions in vulnerable stroke survivors; leaves open prospective validation before clinical use.
Hospital readmission among stroke survivors is frequent, especially in contexts of social vulnerability, compromising recovery and overburdening health services. This study aimed to develop a predictive model of hospital readmission among socially vulnerable stroke survivors, based on the Chronic Conditions Care Model (CCCM). Machine learning algorithms were applied, specifically decision tree and logistic regression, with data split into training (70% and 80%) and testing (30% and 20%) sets. Analyses were conducted using Python, with accuracy evaluated through ROC curves, AUC, and the confusion matrix in Analyse-it®, adopting a 5% significance level. The decision tree with an 80/20 partition achieved an accuracy of 92.45%. The variables most associated with readmission were falls, time since the first stroke, presence of a caregiver, and difficulty sleeping. In logistic regression, falls increased the risk by 235%, ischemic stroke by 155%, complications by 153.53%, COVID-19 by 132%, and time since stroke by 11.5% per year. The model proved to be feasible and robust, with the decision tree standing out, highlighting its potential to support preventive strategies and enhance care management.
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Silva et al. (2025) conducted a cross-sectional in Stroke survivors in social vulnerability (n=267). Risk factors for hospital readmission (e.g., falls, complications, lack of caregiver) vs. Patients without these risk factors was evaluated on Hospital readmission within one year after stroke. A decision tree model predicted hospital readmission among socially vulnerable stroke survivors with up to 92.45% accuracy, identifying falls, time since stroke, caregiver presence, and sleep difficulty as key predictors.
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