Industrial activity, renewable energy, and institutional factors as drivers of CO₂ emissions in ten high-emitting economies

Motives: Carbon emissions in the world’s major emitting economies remain high despite progress in renewable energy deployment and institutional reforms. Investigating how industrial activity, population growth, foreign investment, and governance shape emission trends is important for developing effective environmental policies. Aim: This study investigates the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions in ten high-emitting economies from 1995 to 2023 using the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) and the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects estimator (DCCE), which capture both long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run dynamics while accounting for cross-country interdependence. Results: Renewable energy consistently reduces emissions in both the short and long run. Manufacturing and research activity increase emissions, reflecting carbon-intensive industrial and innovation processes. Population growth reduces emissions in the long run, suggesting demographic-related efficiency gains. Foreign direct investment alone lowers emissions, but its interaction with regulatory quality raises emissions, showing that weak institutional frameworks can offset environmental progress. These findings support coordinated industrial, investment, and governance policies to achieve sustainable reductions in emissions in high-emitting economies.