The burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure across China, 2005–18: a population-based study

BACKGROUND: Temporal trends and geographical variations in cardiovascular disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure in China are not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to quantify the cardiovascular disease burden attributable to high systolic blood pressure at national and provincial levels in China. METHODS: In this population-based study, we evaluated systolic blood pressure and estimated the number of deaths, age-standardised mortality rates, and years of life lost (YLLs) due to cardiovascular disease and its subcategories (including ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases) attributable to high systolic blood pressure, at the national level and by 31 provincial levels, in China, from 2005 to 2018. We pooled blood pressure data of 1·30 million adults aged 25 years and older from the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance project, the China National Nutrition Survey, and the China Hypertension Survey. We applied a temporal-spatial Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate age-specific, sex-specific, province-specific, and year-specific average systolic blood pressure, and a comparative risk assessment method to compute the cardiovascular disease burden attributable to high systolic blood pressure by age, sex, year, and province. FINDINGS: Nationally, age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure was 132·5 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 124·6-140·3) in men and 129·4 mm Hg (121·7 to 137·2) in women. 2·67 million (95% UI 2·61 to 2·72) cardiovascular disease deaths in China were attributable to high systolic blood pressure, including 1·12 million deaths (1·07 to 1·16) due to ischaemic heart disease, 0·63 million deaths (0·60 to 0·65) due to ischaemic stroke, 0·58 million deaths (0·57 to 0·60) due to haemorrhagic stroke, and 0·34 million deaths (0·32 to 0·36) due to other cardiovascular disease. The age-standardised cardiovascular disease mortality rates associated with high systolic blood pressure were 268·99 per 100 000 people (95% UI 264·11 to 273·51) in 2005 and 220·84 per 100 000 people (216·30 to 224·76) in 2018, a percentage change of -17·90%; the rate changed by an average of -1·50% (95% UI -1·55% to -1·45%) per year from 2005 to 2018 nationally. YLL rates for total cardiovascular disease caused by high systolic blood pressure varied substantially across provinces, ranging from 3078·33 (95% UI 2807·40 to 3303·57) per 100 000 people in Beijing to 7189·98 (95% UI 6817·18 to 7507·99) per 100 000 people in Heilongjiang in 2018. Age-standardised YLL rates for ischaemic heart disease and ischaemic stroke attributable to high systolic blood pressure were particularly high in northeastern provinces, including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Jilin. INTERPRETATION: The deaths and YLLs for cardiovascular disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure in China increased between 2005 and 2018, and age-standardised cardiovascular disease mortality rates decreased in the same timeframe. Our findings could help policy makers in promoting blood pressure control measures and implementing effective and locally adapted preventive interventions to reduce the prevalence of high systolic blood pressure and reduce the burden of systolic blood pressure-related cardiovascular disease in China. FUNDING: China National Key Research and Development Program, China National Science & Technology Pillar Program, and National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. TRANSLATION: For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.