Integrating resilience assessment and scenario building in water distribution systems management

This research presents a planning-oriented methodology for assessing the resilience of water distribution systems by integrating a comprehensive resilience assessment framework with a scenario-building process. The approach includes four steps: (i) scenario building; (ii) context‑specific configuration of the resilience assessment framework; (iii) resilience assessment and diagnosis; (iv) definition of improvement measures. This approach enables utilities to assess resilience at multiple levels, from the overall system to individual network areas, under diverse future contexts and disruptive events. The methodology is applied to a real Portuguese water distribution system, revealing critical vulnerabilities, including dependence on a single delivery point, limited service flexibility and pressure disruptions during wildfire events. Targeted measures are proposed, including constructing a secondary non‑potable network, diversifying supply sources, increasing storage capacity and replacing main pipes with larger diameter. These interventions aim to strengthen wildfire response, enhance water autonomy and improve service flexibility, supporting informed medium‑term planning.