What does this research mean for the field?

Under future climate scenarios, particularly SSP5-8.5, the Amazon River Basin will experience a pronounced decline in water balance driven by significantly increasing evapotranspiration and decreasing precipitation. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To evaluate future trends in surface water balance and freshwater availability within an Amazon sub-basin under CMIP6 climate change scenarios from 2022 to 2100.

September 8, 2026Environmental Modeling & AssessmentOpen Access

Water Availability Trends in an Amazon River Basin Under Future Climate Scenarios

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Authors

ASAmanda de Cássia Lobato SoaresUniversidade Federal do Pará LMLeonardo Melo de MendonçaUniversidade Federal do Pará JCJosias da Silva CruzUniversidade Federal do Pará

Discussion

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Overview

Hydrological modeling study reveals declining water balance and streamflow in an Amazon sub-basin under future climate scenarios, highlighting severe risks of future regional water scarcity.

Key Points

To evaluate future trends in surface water balance and freshwater availability within an Amazon sub-basin under CMIP6 climate change scenarios from 2022 to 2100.
Projected precipitation and temperature for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios across 2022–2100 relative to a 2009–2021 reference period using CMIP6 global climate models.
Modeled river streamflow using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) neural network and estimated reference evapotranspiration via a locally calibrated Hargreaves–Samani equation.
Evaluated historical and future hydrological trends using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator.
Local calibration of the Hargreaves–Samani equation corrected the standard formulation's tendency to overestimate reference evapotranspiration in humid tropical conditions.
Projections indicated a statistically significant increase in evapotranspiration (Z = 7.92) alongside significant decreases in precipitation (Z = −3.96) and specific discharge (Z = −3.61).
Total sub-basin water balance exhibited a pronounced negative trend (Z = −4.77), with the most severe drying occurring under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Cite This Study

Soares et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fd80458e84d0ff5b471e5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-026-10161-2

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September 8, 2026Environmental Modeling & AssessmentOpen Access

Water Availability Trends in an Amazon River Basin Under Future Climate Scenarios

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

ASAmanda de Cássia Lobato SoaresUniversidade Federal do Pará LMLeonardo Melo de MendonçaUniversidade Federal do Pará JCJosias da Silva CruzUniversidade Federal do Pará

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Hydrological modeling study reveals declining water balance and streamflow in an Amazon sub-basin under future climate scenarios, highlighting severe risks of future regional water scarcity.

Key Points

To evaluate future trends in surface water balance and freshwater availability within an Amazon sub-basin under CMIP6 climate change scenarios from 2022 to 2100.
Projected precipitation and temperature for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios across 2022–2100 relative to a 2009–2021 reference period using CMIP6 global climate models.
Modeled river streamflow using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) neural network and estimated reference evapotranspiration via a locally calibrated Hargreaves–Samani equation.
Evaluated historical and future hydrological trends using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator.
Local calibration of the Hargreaves–Samani equation corrected the standard formulation's tendency to overestimate reference evapotranspiration in humid tropical conditions.
Projections indicated a statistically significant increase in evapotranspiration (Z = 7.92) alongside significant decreases in precipitation (Z = −3.96) and specific discharge (Z = −3.61).
Total sub-basin water balance exhibited a pronounced negative trend (Z = −4.77), with the most severe drying occurring under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Cite This Study

Soares et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fd80458e84d0ff5b471e5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-026-10161-2

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