Trends in emergency admissions

Part one of this series discusses how the more widely recognised factors, such as an ageing population, re-admissions and increasing expectations of medicine, only contribute to a baseline increase in emergency admissions. Seasonal variation is discussed in the context of the predictability, or otherwise of emergency admissions, in response to changes in the weather and the wider environment. However, these are unable to explain the observed cyclical events occurring in medicine every 4-6 years, and even longer cycles in surgical and trauma admissions. These cycles are discussed in part two, while part three investigates the implications on bed planning. The current methods for estimating the size of hospitals and bed pools within hospitals are shown to be inappropriate to the real needs of emergency care.