A Negative Finding in an Exercise Test Is Reliable among Elderly People: A Follow-Up Study

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is very common among elderly people. OBJECTIVE: To specify the diagnostic value of bicycle exercise tests conducted for elderly patients by trained general practitioners in primary health care. METHODS: We performed a 2-year follow-up study at the Kangasala Health Centre, Finland. The study population comprised all patients at least 60 years old (n = 311) suspected of having CHD without prior diagnosis who were examined by an exercise test carried out by trained general practitioners during a period of 3 years. Specificity and sensitivity as well as positive and negative predictive values of the tests were calculated based on whether or not the participants had a diagnosis of CHD by the end of the follow-up period. The numbers of patients referred for coronary angiography and bypass operation were registered. For analysis, the patients were divided into two age categories: 60-69 years and >or=70 years. RESULTS: A negative finding in the test proved very reliable: CHD manifested in only 3% of these cases in both age groups. The specificity of the test was 72% in the group 60-69 years and 66% in the group >or=70 years; the sensitivity values were 81 and 67%, respectively. The positive predictive values were 26 and 12%, the negative predictive value was 97% in both age groups. 1 in 4 patients yielding a positive finding eventually underwent coronary angiography and 1 in 6 patients coronary bypass surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Exercise tests may predict the clinical outcome of CHD among elderly patients. A negative finding in an exercise test is very reliable.