Predictive modeling of plant productivity in the Russian Arctic using satellite data

The NOAA satellite data for 1982–2012 are used to analyze current changes in plant productivity of the Russian boreal and tundra zones. Trends in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are calculated separately for the vegetation zones in the European, West Siberian, East Siberian, and Far East sectors of the Russian Arctic and are compared with each other. This index is the normalized difference in reflectance between the red and infrared regions of the spectrum and is widely used as an indicator of the photosynthetically active biomass amount. Multifactorial statistical analysis is used to analyze the link between the plant productivity characterized by NDVI and predictive climatic indices characterizing the temperature regime and precipitation. A statistical model is developed on the basis of the resulting set of regression equations and is used with a climatic projection to predict plant productivity changes across the zonal gradient from northern tundra to boreal forests. According to our results, the current increase in plant productivity, which is observed in all vegetation zones in the Arctic, will continue in the coming decades. By the mid-21st century, productivity may increase by as much as 30% of its current value in selected zones of arctic vegetation.