Evaluation of the Riverine Heat Influx Impact on the Arctic Ice Cover Based on Numerical Modeling

Three-dimensional numerical modeling is used to assess the sensitivity of the sea ice state in the Arctic deep-water basin to changing the riverine heat influx. The change in the sea ice volume due to the heat coming with river waters relative to its annual average value is analyzed. Numerical experiment results demonstrate an increase in the riverine heat contribution to the Arctic sea ice decline at the end of the second decade of the present century. This process is most manifested in the deep-water part of the Eastern Hemisphere, which is determined by immediate proximity to the largest Siberia’s rivers and the system of the circulation of shelf seas and deep-water basins under conditions of increasing air temperature and sea ice reduction in the Arctic.