Key result
Physician mortality predictions for urgent ICU referrals show poor accuracy with an AUC of 0.61.
Why the study?
How accurate is physician prognostication of hospital mortality in acutely ill patients referred for urgent ICU admission?
Population
2,374 acutely ill patients referred for urgent ICU admission in an academic, tertiary hospital
Design
Cohort
Follow-up
Until hospital discharge (hospital mortality)
Authors
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Caution against sole reliance on physician mortality predictions for urgent ICU triage; leaves open whether objective models could improve accuracy.
Cohort (n=2,374)
No
How accurate is physician prognostication of hospital mortality in acutely ill patients referred for urgent ICU admission?
Effect estimate: AUC 0.61
p-value: p=<0.001
Physician prediction of hospital mortality in urgent ICU referrals has poor overall accuracy, primarily due to low sensitivity in detecting patients at risk of poor prognosis.
Ramos et al. (2018) conducted a cohort in Acutely deteriorating patients referred for urgent ICU admission (n=2,374). Physician's prognosis assessment was evaluated on Hospital mortality (AUC 0.61, p=<0.001). Physicians' prediction of hospital mortality in urgent ICU referrals showed poor accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.61, sensitivity of 31%, and specificity of 91%.
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