The impact of manufacturing agglomeration on carbon productivity in the Yellow River Basin

In recent years, the manufacturing industry in the Yellow River Basin has gained increasing scholarly and policy attention, driven by the urgent need for green and low-carbon development. This study investigates the impact of spatial evolution—specifically spatial agglomeration—on carbon productivity. The empirical analysis employs a two-way fixed effects model combined with spatial econometric techniques, including the average nearest neighbor index and the global Moran’s I , to assess spatial dynamics. The results indicate that the manufacturing sector in the basin is predominantly technology-intensive. Carbon productivity exhibits an initial decline followed by a recovery, maintaining a “U-shaped” relationship with manufacturing scale. Regarding agglomeration patterns, specialization agglomeration exerts a suppressive effect on carbon productivity, whereas diversification agglomeration contributes to its enhancement. These findings underscore the importance of spatial planning and targeted policy measures in supporting sustainable low-carbon development in the Yellow River Basin.