Revised Models of the "Rally Phenomenon": The Case of the Carter Presidency

This research note reports an examination of presidential approval ratings during the Iran hostage crisis. Models of intervention and transfer function are estimated by way of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao analysis using Gallup opinion data from January 1976 to December 1979. Although it is fairly well accepted that the hostage crisis precipitated a "rally-round-the-flag" effect for President Carter, an examination of popularity dynamics reveals the unique influence of the crisis on Independents, a finding that suggests the need to revise the traditional view of the rally phenomenon.