Population-Level Implications of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors for Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction in the US

Importance: The expansion of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor use in patients with heart failure (HF) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) more than 40% following the EMPEROR-Preserved (Empagliflozin Outcome Trial in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction) and the DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients with Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trials have major implications in the US. Objective: To quantify the estimated US population-level impact of reducing worsening HF events with SGLT-2 inhibitors in individuals with LVEF more than 40%. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model study used self-reported HF data from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey from 2015 to 2018, which was weighted across the entire US population and subsequently mapped onto newly eligible LVEF distributions from the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry. All patients older than 18 years with HF from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey were grouped into the following categories: all LVEF and LVEF more than 40%. Numbers needed to treat estimations over 3 years were obtained for outcome measures from the EMPEROR-Reduced (Empagliflozin Outcome Trial in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction), EMPEROR-Preserved, DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure), and DELIVER trials. Main Outcomes and Measures: Worsening HF events (unplanned HF hospitalizations, urgent HF visits requiring intravenous therapy, or cardiovascular death). Results: A projected 4 794 524 (95% CI, 3 997 363-5 591 684) adults (57% male; 67% White; mean age, 66 years) with HF would be eligible for SGLT-2 inhibitors. Of this total population, 2 619 248 (95% CI, 2 183 759-3 054 737) would be estimated as newly eligible with LVEF more than 40%. Based on estimates from the EMPEROR-Reduced/EMPEROR-Preserved and DAPA-HF/DELIVER trials, a projected 624 247 (95% CI, 520 457-728 037) to 627 124 (95% CI, 522 855-731 392) worsening HF events could be prevented across the LVEF spectrum with SGLT-2 inhibitors over 3 years, of which 232 589 (95% CI, 193 918-271 260) to 282 879 (95% CI, 235 846-329 912) events could be prevented in individuals with LVEF more than 40%. Moreover, an estimated 468 904 (95% CI, 390 942-546 867) to 499 110 (95% CI, 416 125-582 094) total HF hospitalizations could be prevented across the LVEF spectrum, of which 172 870 (95% CI, 144 128-201 613) to 231 018 (95% CI, 192 608-269 428) could be prevented in individuals with LVEF more than 40%. Conclusions and Relevance: In addition to the proven benefit in HF with LVEF of 40% and less, optimal implementation of SGLT-2 inhibitor therapy for HF with LVEF more than 40% can potentially prevent/postpone an additional approximately 250 000 worsening HF events over 3 years in the US.