A socio-technical transition of the low-altitude economy: Evidence and governance implications from Chinese cities

The low-altitude economy (LAE) generally refers to economic activities conducted within airspace below 1,000 meters. Drawing on related theories on socio-technical transitions, LAE can be understood as a future regime challenging the dominant urban mobility paradigm. As an emerging field, it has yet to be systematically examined through empirical study, especially regarding local response. In this paper, we construct an Integrated Local Support Index (ILSI) based on the number of relevant local policies and the level of public interest measured by the Baidu Search Index. Private sector readiness is measured by the LAE Development Scale (DS) based on the registered capital of relevant enterprises locally. Focusing on the top 50 cities in China’s LAE sector, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study to explore the relationships between DS, ILSI, and other natural and socio-economic factors between 2012 and 2023. The dynamic interactions of key stakeholders (local government, foreign capital, and talent) are analysed by game theory. The findings suggest that ILSI, education level, and foreign investment are positively associated with LAE development, while wind speed acts as a constraining factor. The game theory analysis further reveals that coordinated interactions among government, capital, and talent can foster stable and efficient growth. Projecting to the future, local LAE DS in 2026 is predicted via a panel time-series model with random effects. This study contributes by integrating policy support and public interest into a unified empirical framework, while providing both empirical evidence and governance strategies for decision-makers navigating the socio-technical transition of the LAE.