What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Cohort. Population: Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome stages 0-3 (n=3832). Intervention: Cumulative average metabolic indices vs. Per standard deviation increase. Primary outcome: New-onset cardiovascular disease (OR 1.27-1.36).

What does this research mean for the field?

Higher cumulative average metabolic indices are significantly associated with increased odds of new-onset cardiovascular disease in early-stage cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome, with intrinsic capacity partially mediating this relationship. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To examine whether cumulative average metabolic indices predict cardiovascular disease risk and whether intrinsic capacity mediates or complements this relationship in early-stage cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome.

September 14, 2026Diabetology & Metabolic SyndromeOpen Access

Cumulative average metabolic indices and cardiovascular disease risk: additive predictive effects and partial mediating role of intrinsic capacity in early-stage CKM syndrome

Q: What are the key findings of this study?

Higher cumulative average metabolic indices were significantly associated with increased odds of new-onset cardiovascular disease (per SD OR range: 1.27-1.36).

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Key result

Higher cumulative average metabolic indices linked to ~27% greater new-onset CVD risk per SD.

OR 1.27-1.36
n=3,832

Authors

YWYonghuan WangScience and Technology on Surface Physics and Chemistry Laboratory ZLZhenhua LiShanghaiTech University WZWeijia ZhangShanxi Medical University

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Prospective cohort study reveals cumulative metabolic burden increases cardiovascular risk in early CKM syndrome, indicating functional capacity assessment improves early risk stratification.

Key Points

To examine whether cumulative average metabolic indices predict cardiovascular disease risk and whether intrinsic capacity mediates or complements this relationship in early-stage cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome.
Analyzed 3,832 adults with CKM stages 0–3 and without baseline CVD from the prospective China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).
Calculated 14 cumulative average metabolic indices from repeated measurements over a median follow-up of 4.0 years.
Assessed dose–response relationships, predictive accuracy, and mediation by intrinsic capacity using multivariable logistic regression, restricted cubic splines, and FDR correction.
Incident CVD occurred in 303 participants (7.9%) over the 4.0-year median follow-up period.
Five cumulative indices (TyG-BMI, TyG-WHtR, TyG-CI, TyG-CVAI, and METS-IR) were significantly associated with incident CVD (per SD OR range: 1.27–1.36) with linear dose–response patterns after full adjustment and FDR correction.
Adding intrinsic capacity to individual indices (baseline AUC: 0.580–0.604) improved discrimination up to AUC 0.621 (NRI and IDI P < 0.01), with intrinsic capacity mediating 4% to 7% of the total association.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=3,832)

PICO

Population

3,832 adults with CKM stages 0-3 and without baseline CVD, followed for a median of 4.0 years.

Exposure / Comparator

Cumulative average metabolic indices vs Per standard deviation increase

Primary Outcome

New-onset cardiovascular disease — OR 1.27-1.36

Main Result

Effect estimate: OR 1.27-1.36

Cite This Study

Wang et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome stages 0-3 (n=3,832). Cumulative average metabolic indices vs. Per standard deviation increase was evaluated on New-onset cardiovascular disease (OR 1.27-1.36). Higher cumulative average metabolic indices were significantly associated with increased odds of new-onset cardiovascular disease (per SD OR range: 1.27-1.36).

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa7b3df0926e14a848b31fd https://doi.org/10.1186/s13098-026-02307-9

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September 14, 2026Diabetology & Metabolic SyndromeOpen Access

Cumulative average metabolic indices and cardiovascular disease risk: additive predictive effects and partial mediating role of intrinsic capacity in early-stage CKM syndrome

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Key result

Higher cumulative average metabolic indices linked to ~27% greater new-onset CVD risk per SD.

OR 1.27-1.36
n=3,832

Authors

YWYonghuan WangScience and Technology on Surface Physics and Chemistry Laboratory ZLZhenhua LiShanghaiTech University WZWeijia ZhangShanxi Medical University

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Prospective cohort study reveals cumulative metabolic burden increases cardiovascular risk in early CKM syndrome, indicating functional capacity assessment improves early risk stratification.

Key Points

To examine whether cumulative average metabolic indices predict cardiovascular disease risk and whether intrinsic capacity mediates or complements this relationship in early-stage cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome.
Analyzed 3,832 adults with CKM stages 0–3 and without baseline CVD from the prospective China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).
Calculated 14 cumulative average metabolic indices from repeated measurements over a median follow-up of 4.0 years.
Assessed dose–response relationships, predictive accuracy, and mediation by intrinsic capacity using multivariable logistic regression, restricted cubic splines, and FDR correction.
Incident CVD occurred in 303 participants (7.9%) over the 4.0-year median follow-up period.
Five cumulative indices (TyG-BMI, TyG-WHtR, TyG-CI, TyG-CVAI, and METS-IR) were significantly associated with incident CVD (per SD OR range: 1.27–1.36) with linear dose–response patterns after full adjustment and FDR correction.
Adding intrinsic capacity to individual indices (baseline AUC: 0.580–0.604) improved discrimination up to AUC 0.621 (NRI and IDI P < 0.01), with intrinsic capacity mediating 4% to 7% of the total association.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=3,832)

PICO

Population

3,832 adults with CKM stages 0-3 and without baseline CVD, followed for a median of 4.0 years.

Exposure / Comparator

Cumulative average metabolic indices vs Per standard deviation increase

Primary Outcome

New-onset cardiovascular disease — OR 1.27-1.36

Main Result

Effect estimate: OR 1.27-1.36

Cite This Study

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa7b3df0926e14a848b31fd https://doi.org/10.1186/s13098-026-02307-9

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