What does this research mean for the field?

Aerosol pollution in Thailand exhibits an inverted U-shape relationship with economic growth, consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve, and is projected to decline as the economy expands through 2050. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.CONFIRMATORY. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.SUPPORTS_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To examine the relationship between aerosol pollution and economic and environmental drivers using the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework and forecast pollution levels through 2050.

September 14, 2026Discover AtmosphereOpen Access

Aerosol pollution and economic growth in Thailand with a machine learning analysis of the environmental Kuznets Curve

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Authors

TSThanakhom Srisaringkarn KAKentaka Aruga

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Overview

Machine learning modeling reveals an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and aerosol pollution in Thailand, suggesting future pollution declines with sustained development.

Key Points

To examine the relationship between aerosol pollution and economic and environmental drivers using the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework and forecast pollution levels through 2050.
Evaluated and compared the predictive accuracy of four machine learning models across training, validation, and test periods.
Modeled aerosol pollution dynamics using environmental features (NDVI, rainfall, wind speed, regional traits) and economic indicators (GPP per capita, population density).
The Random Forest model achieved the highest predictive accuracy across training, validation, and test datasets.
Aerosol pollution followed an inverted U-shaped curve with economic growth, forecasting average annual pollution declines between −0.0569% and −0.0636% from 2000 to 2050, except in the Southern region where pollution increased.
Population density and GPP per capita served as the primary economic drivers intensifying aerosol pollution in high-activity regions.

Cite This Study

Srisaringkarn et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa7b41e0926e14a848b3a4b https://doi.org/10.1007/s44292-026-00092-8

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September 14, 2026Discover AtmosphereOpen Access

Aerosol pollution and economic growth in Thailand with a machine learning analysis of the environmental Kuznets Curve

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

TSThanakhom Srisaringkarn KAKentaka Aruga

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Machine learning modeling reveals an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and aerosol pollution in Thailand, suggesting future pollution declines with sustained development.

Key Points

To examine the relationship between aerosol pollution and economic and environmental drivers using the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework and forecast pollution levels through 2050.
Evaluated and compared the predictive accuracy of four machine learning models across training, validation, and test periods.
Modeled aerosol pollution dynamics using environmental features (NDVI, rainfall, wind speed, regional traits) and economic indicators (GPP per capita, population density).
The Random Forest model achieved the highest predictive accuracy across training, validation, and test datasets.
Aerosol pollution followed an inverted U-shaped curve with economic growth, forecasting average annual pollution declines between −0.0569% and −0.0636% from 2000 to 2050, except in the Southern region where pollution increased.
Population density and GPP per capita served as the primary economic drivers intensifying aerosol pollution in high-activity regions.

Cite This Study

Srisaringkarn et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa7b41e0926e14a848b3a4b https://doi.org/10.1007/s44292-026-00092-8

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