We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], -1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, -2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.
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Nosyk et al. (2019) studied this question.
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