Key result
Modeling projects improved safe water access cuts overall HAV incidence ~67% with symptomatic infections unchanged.
Mathematical modeling suggests that improving safe water access in Brazil and Mexico will decrease overall HAV incidence but not symptomatic HAV incidence, due to a shift in infection age to early adulthood.
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Models project rising adult HAV burden during endemicity transition in LMICs; leaves open optimal vaccination strategies pending prospective validation.
Effelterre et al. (2017) studied Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection. Improved access to safe water was evaluated on Incidence rate of HAV infections and symptomatic HAV infections. Mathematical modeling projected that improved safe water access in Brazil and Mexico will decrease overall HAV incidence by about two thirds, while symptomatic infection incidence remains unchanged.
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