Key result
Modeled decline in hepatitis A transmissibility predicts an initial incidence drop followed by substantial resurgence.
Why the study?
The epidemiology of hepatitis A is changing due to improvements in hygiene and living conditions that reduce transmissibility, necessitating modeling of long-term incidence changes.
Mathematical modeling suggests that countries experiencing a rapid decline in hepatitis A incidence may be at risk of a subsequent resurgence, highlighting the need for informed vaccination policies.
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Alerts clinicians to possible hepatitis A resurgence; leaves open whether real-world data will confirm the modeled trajectory.
NIGEL J GAY (1996) studied Hepatitis A. Long-term decline in transmissibility was evaluated on Force of infection and incidence of hepatitis A. A mathematical model demonstrates that a long-term decline in the transmissibility of hepatitis A may lead to an initial decline in incidence followed by a substantial resurgence.
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