Land carrying capacity in rural settlements of three gorges reservoir based on the system dynamic model

To explore the land carry capacity of the rural settlements in Three Gorges reservoir area, this study evaluates the carrying capacity of agricultural products, economic output of the land resource, and their changing trend based on the system dynamics model by using the 2003–2012 data. The results show that: (1) in the aspect of the economic output, the population is overloaded, (2) in the aspect of the agricultural products, the population is not overloaded; and (3) under the four control scenarios, it can been found that the coordinated development program, which is the optimal solution integrating the first, second, and third programs' advantages, makes the land resources protection and economic and social development coordinated. According to the results, several strategies are put forward to improve the economic carrying capacity. Summary for Managers The problem of economic overloading is serious for the land resources in the rural settlements of Three Gorges reservoir area. In order to improve the economic carrying capacity, four control plans have been worked out, out of which an optimized plan has been selected on the basis of the coordination of social and economy development. Several strategies for improving the economic carrying capacity are to develop efficient ecological agriculture and special tourism, increase investment in science and technology, and adopt pro‐active policies to encourage the migrants to move out.