Arctic politics in the emerging multipolar system: challenges and consequences

The quest for Arctic territory has been a subject of intense scrutiny for scholars and policymakers in recent years. At a time when many international institutions and non-governmental organizations are focused on human-centric variables of global politics, the security environment in the circumpolar region appears to be one of the only areas in which interstate tension and conflict may arise in the traditional sense. The competing claims being made over Arctic territory by states, including at least two great powers, and governance structures combine an unusual variety of legal, normative and sovereignty issues but, even so, states appear willing to use militarism and arms racing behaviour as a possible means for ensuring their claims are taken seriously. To date, no hard power conflict has taken place over Arctic territorial claims, but it is also important to bear in mind that the recent intrigue in the region has taken place in the unipolar moment of American hegemony. This article takes a systemic approach to studying the security competition in the high north and argues that, while national interests have yet to lead to intense conflict or the use of force to date, the impending shift from a unipolar to a multipolar system will profoundly affect how states pursue their Arctic claims.