Key result
Noninvasive risk tool predicts incident prediabetes or diabetes in young American Indians with AUC 0.68.
Why the study?
Risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes in young adults aged 18 to 29 years were characterized to develop a noninvasive risk assessment tool for younger American populations.
Can a noninvasive risk assessment tool accurately predict the 5-year risk of developing prediabetes or diabetes in young American Indian adults?
Cohort (n=590)
Can a noninvasive risk assessment tool accurately predict the 5-year risk of developing prediabetes or diabetes in young American Indian adults?
A noninvasive self-assessment tool using basic clinical and lifestyle factors provides reasonably good discrimination for predicting early-onset diabetes risk in young American Indian adults.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
May inform early risk stratification in young American Indians; leaves open external validation before clinical use.
PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to characterize risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes in young adults aged 18 to 29 years to develop a noninvasive risk assessment tool for use with younger American populations. METHODS: The self-assessment tool was developed with the Strong Heart Family Study data. A total of 590 young American Indian adults (242 men) who had normoglycemia and were not receiving diabetes treatment were included. Risk factors recommended by the American Diabetes Association were used to assess diabetes risk in these young adults. A logistic regression model was developed to calculate the predicted probability. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the model. RESULTS: The final model showed that parental history of diabetes, obesity level, alcohol consumption, and high fasting glucose, even within normal range, were significantly associated with onset of prediabetes/diabetes in 5 years. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value was 0.68 with original and validated data, indicating that the risk assessment tool had reasonably good discrimination ability. CONCLUSIONS: This new noninvasive screening tool, based on data from American Indian young adults, has potential to screen young adults' early-onset diabetes risk. Future studies are warranted to test this risk assessment tool in other racial/ethnic young adults.
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Yan et al. (2016) conducted a cohort in Type 2 diabetes risk (n=590). Risk factors (parental history of diabetes, obesity, alcohol consumption, high fasting glucose) was evaluated on Onset of prediabetes/diabetes in 5 years (AUC 0.68). A noninvasive risk assessment tool using parental history, obesity, alcohol, and fasting glucose predicted the 5-year onset of prediabetes or diabetes in young American Indians with an AUC of 0.68.
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