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August 1, 2016The Diabetes EducatorOpen Access

Noninvasive risk tool predicts incident prediabetes or diabetes in young American Indians with AUC 0.68.

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Why the study?

Risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes in young adults aged 18 to 29 years were characterized to develop a noninvasive risk assessment tool for younger American populations.

Can a noninvasive risk assessment tool accurately predict the 5-year risk of developing prediabetes or diabetes in young American Indian adults?

Population

590 young American Indian adults aged 18 to 29 years with normoglycemia

Comparison

Noninvasive risk assessment tool using parental history, obesity, alcohol, fasting glucose

Design

Cohort study using Strong Heart Family Study data

Follow-up

5 years

Key result

A noninvasive risk assessment tool using parental history, obesity, alcohol, and fasting glucose predicted the 5-year onset of prediabetes or diabetes in young American Indians with an AUC of 0.68.

Authors

FYFengxia YanECEunSeok ChaELElisa T. Lee

Discussion

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Member takes

Overview

May inform early risk stratification in young American Indians; leaves open external validation before clinical use.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=590)

Structured PICO

Can a noninvasive risk assessment tool accurately predict the 5-year risk of developing prediabetes or diabetes in young American Indian adults?

P
Population
590 young American Indian adults aged 18 to 29 years with normoglycemia, evaluated for the onset of prediabetes or diabetes over 5 years.
E
Exposure
Noninvasive risk assessment tool (logistic regression model incorporating parental history of diabetes, obesity level, alcohol consumption, and high fasting glucose)
O
Outcome
Onset of prediabetes/diabetes in 5 yearssurrogate

Main Result

Effect estimate: AUC 0.68

A noninvasive self-assessment tool using basic clinical and lifestyle factors provides reasonably good discrimination for predicting early-onset diabetes risk in young American Indian adults.

Limitations

  • Needs validation in other racial/ethnic young adults
  • Lack of diversity (only tested in American Indian young adults, requiring validation in other racial/ethnic groups)

Cite This Study

Yan et al. (2016) conducted a cohort in Type 2 diabetes risk (n=590). Risk factors (parental history of diabetes, obesity, alcohol consumption, high fasting glucose) was evaluated on Onset of prediabetes/diabetes in 5 years (AUC 0.68). A noninvasive risk assessment tool using parental history, obesity, alcohol, and fasting glucose predicted the 5-year onset of prediabetes or diabetes in young American Indians with an AUC of 0.68.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aaa3447c6706550ffbdffe6https://doi.org/10.1177/0145721716658709
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Assessment of Diabetes Risk Using Indian Diabetic Risk Score and Its Associated Factors among Young Adults in Rural Area of Central Kerala2026
  2. 2Incidence rates and predictors of diabetes in those with prediabetes: the Strong Heart Study2010 · 93 citations
  3. 3Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at risk: a cross-sectional analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools2020
  4. 4Abstract 52: Long-term Diabetes Incidence Among Young Adults By Glycemic Status And Risk Scores: 35-Year Follow-Up in the Coronary Artery Risk Development In Young Adults (CARDIA) Study2026
  5. 5Risk Factors and Prediction of Stroke in a Population with High Prevalence of Diabetes: The Strong Heart Study2017 · 12 citations