The bright prospect of China's photovoltaic under the double carbon goal: A potential assessment based on the life cycle of photovoltaic power plants

China's proposed "double carbon" strategy (achieving peak carbon, then net zero) offers an unprecedented opportunity for the development of solar photovoltaic (PV). Assessing land suitability and development potential is essential for scaling up PV infrastructure. However, the possible impacts of climate change and land conversion over the long-life cycle of PV systems have not been sufficiently explored. Here, this study develops a spatiotemporal assessment framework that integrates subjective Multi-Criteria Decision Making with the objective Geographic Detector to evaluate the land suitability and development potential of centralized photovoltaic (CPV) systems in China under both current condition and future scenarios of climate change and land conversion. This study spans the 30-year PV life cycle, overcoming the static siting limitations. Results indicate that in 2020, approximately 2,486,158 km 2 (26.26%) of China's land was suitable for CPV development. The technical potential was 57 times that year's national electricity, offering a CO 2 mitigation potential of 247.66 Gt. Future prospects are even more promising, with the potential projected to reach 1.5 times the 2020 level. The most suitable regions for CPV development are western Inner Mongolia and the northeastern and southwestern parts of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. In areas with low CPV potential, composite PV projects tailored to local conditions could be implemented. Our results confirm that CPV holds significant potential for decarbonizing China's power system by 2050 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Internationally, this methodology offers a replicable framework for spatially explicit renewable energy planning under global change scenarios.