Spatial trajectories and land-use potential of China's utility-scale photovoltaic expansion toward 2035

China aims to reach 3600 GW of combined wind and solar capacity by 2035, requiring substantial expansion of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) deployment. Quantifying the geospatial footprint of this expansion is essential for sustainable land-use planning and ecological protection. This study develops a nationwide assessment framework that integrates multi-source remote sensing observations, Random Forest (RF) suitability modeling, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for model interpretation, and scenario-based spatial allocation. Historical PV data from 2000 to 2025 show that China's utility-scale PV farms expanded to 13,800 km 2 , with growth concentrated in northwestern mega-bases and emerging decentralized installations in central-eastern regions, indicating a dual-track spatial trajectory. Scenario projections suggest that Scenario B (NDC Update-Aligned Pathway) requires an additional 21,420 km 2 , whereas Scenario C (Wind-Slowdown Compensation) increases land demand moderately to 24,405 km 2 . Scenario A (Business as Usual) could require up to 63,990 km 2 and would disproportionately affect croplands and forests. However, China retains more than 206,000 km 2 of high-potential land, indicating that ecological conflicts are driven mainly by spatial mismatch rather than absolute land scarcity. These findings underscore the need for integrated spatial governance, optimized ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission, and distributed PV deployment. By linking observed spatial trajectories, interpretable suitability modeling, and capacity-to-land translation, this study provides a transferable framework for assessing the land-use potential of utility-scale PV expansion toward 2035.