Suitability Analysis and Potential Assessment for Sustainable Photovoltaic Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of China: A Spatial Framework for Land–Energy Synergy

Driven by the rapid expansion of the new energy industry and the growing demand for photovoltaic (PV) power plant construction, optimizing site selection to ensure operational efficiency and stability has emerged as a critical imperative. Addressing the lack of precise zonation assessment systems for PV development in China’s arid and semi-arid regions, this study introduces a multi-dimensional, five-tier suitability evaluation framework. By integrating Boolean logic, the Bayesian Best–Worst Method (B-BWM), and Equal Interval classification, we developed a multi-resolution integrated assessment framework where spatial boundaries are mainly constrained by 30 m topographic and land-cover data. Results indicate that the candidate PV construction space (the upper two suitability classes, PDSI ≥ 3.40) spans 0.85 million km2 concentrated in central-western Inner Mongolia and southeastern Xinjiang, and model validation achieves an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.79. The annual technical potential reaches 19,069 TWh, equivalent to approximately 207% of China’s total electricity consumption in 2023. If fully developed, this potential offers a theoretical annual CO2 emission reduction ranging from 12.69 to 21.48 billion tons under different conversion efficiency scenarios, with a baseline estimate of 14.65 billion tons. These multi-resolution integrated findings provide a useful spatial reference for preliminary site screening in arid and semi-arid regions, support China’s “Dual Carbon” goals, and offer a practical methodological approach for renewable energy planning on marginal lands.